Serafin Real Estate (SRE), Northern Virginia’s leading boutique brokerage for early education and specialty commercial assets, released its 2026 Northern Virginia Childcare Real Estate Market Report, revealing unprecedented demand and a widening supply demand gap across Fairfax and Loudoun Counties.
Despite broader commercial market recalibration, early education properties continue to outperform every major asset class in the region. SRE’s analysis shows a 41% net reduction in licensed childcare centers in Loudoun County since 2020, falling from 192 centers to just 113 by mid 2025, a contraction that has created a structural shortage and pushed valuations to historic highs.
“We are witnessing a structural pivot in how early education real estate is valued,” said Joe Serafin, Founder and Principal Broker of Serafin Real Estate. “With a national shortfall of six million enrollment slots and a near-monopoly environment for existing facilities in NOVA, these properties have transitioned into essential community infrastructure that banks and institutional investors are eager to finance.”
Market Leadership and Record Performance
Serafin Real Estate continues to dominate the region’s early education sector, brokering approximately 90% of all childcare related transactions in Loudoun County. Key performance highlights include:
- Regional Dominance: Leading the vast majority of childcare property sales in Loudoun and Fairfax Counties.
- Record Valuation: Achieved a regional record of $545.61 per square foot for a vacant childcare property on Elk Lick Road.
- Superior Returns: SRE transactions average $354 per square foot, significantly outperforming general retail and regional commercial benchmarks.
- Cap Rate Stability: Stabilized NNN assets with national corporate guarantors continue to trade between 5.50% and 6.50%.
Turnkey Opportunities for 2026
To help address the region’s critical capacity shortage, SRE is currently marketing several premier early education assets, offering immediate solutions for operators and institutional buyers:
- 42885 Orchard Oriole Drive, Ashburn: Turnkey 10,734 SF educational center in a high income commuter corridor.
- 5003 Westone Plaza, Chantilly: Trophy 21,222 SF investment sale with an absolute NNN KinderCare lease.
- 42525 Tall Cedars Pkwy, Chantilly: Newly delivered (2024) 21,313 SF state of the art facility licensed for 350 children.
- Operating Montessori School for Lease, Loudoun County: Strategic 7,222 SF site positioned for rapid residential growth in the Ashburn corridor.
- 211 Edds Ln, Sterling: High visibility 5,000 SF boutique school space with immediate road access.
- Fairfax County Strategic Site: Built out 9,000+ SF school property in a high barrier to entry submarket.
About Serafin Real Estate
Serafin Real Estate is Northern Virginia’s most trusted boutique commercial brokerage specializing in early education, medical, and NNN investment properties. With more than $700 million in closed transactions, the firm leverages data driven precision to maximize exit values while navigating the complex Special Use Permit (SUP) and licensing requirements unique to Virginia.
Serafin Real Estate
+1 703 261 4809
40834 Graydon Manor Ln
Leesburg
VA
20175
United States
